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Supply and Demand is Key to Market

For those of you who missed it, see below for the Hereford Times Market Comment, written by our very own Steven Thomas in last Thursday’s copy.

 

Through December and January different property reports are published which give an opinion of how the market has performed over the last year and which attempt to predict what the market might do over the next period.   How do we decide what is relevant to the Hereford property market?

Statistics are an interesting subject! Identical data may be manipulated to present what the author wishes to show.

Do the percentage guesstimated rise and falls actually mean anything and where does the information come from?

Statistically comparing the increased value of near identical houses is almost impossible.   Every property is unique.

The market is driven by different factors, for example two people wanting the same house on the same day can distort the market massively.

My advice is to carefully consider internet-generated valuation advice, and then largely ignore it.

The property market, like any other, is generally driven by supply and demand.

Stock levels over the last 6 months in Hereford have been low, and on that basis we would have expected prices to have risen; but has this been the case?

The property market, at all levels, appears to need stock.  We are seeing a distinct shortage of supply in the £120,000 to £300,000 price range.  The market needs 2, 3 and 4 bedroom houses for couples and families.  Usually there is a choice of property available.  The Hereford property market currently has the lowest stock since 1988… yes 1988!

At the moment people who are thinking about moving up or down the market are waiting to see what else comes available.  While they are waiting they are not putting their own property on the market.  A log jam is being created.

There is a distinct attitude of ‘we don’t have to move so we will wait’.

2016 surprised us all; the result of the US election, the Brexit Vote and StampDuty Changes, none of which were predicted by statisticians or polls!

Those thinking of moving in 2017 will be asking, “Shall we move now?…  Should we move now?… Do we wait for Article 50 to be triggered?” …etc.

As you are reading this, whether you are a property buyer or seller, landlord or tenant, or simply an avid reader of The Hereford Times, keep enjoying your Hereford home.  We have a lot to be grateful for.